Iran–US war: oil tops $100 as Hormuz stays a battlefield

The war between the United States — with Israel — and Iran is now in its seventh month. Oil traders on Monday pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, after the latest exchange of fire in the Gulf and Houthi strikes on Saudi cities that have already rerouted exports toward the Bab el-Mandab.

Washington has described recent waves as “maintenance” — striking missile belts, coastal batteries and even Iranian tankers — rather than a single retaliation. Tehran has answered with salvos that host governments in Jordan and the Gulf say are increasingly intercepted. Diplomats trying to talk de-escalation in Vienna found the door closed: the US blocked Iran’s nuclear chief from a meeting there on Monday, and Hormuz talks were postponed.

Satellite images this week showed damage on a major Saudi pipeline. Europe is staring at a winter of expensive energy stacked on top of the Ukraine war. The US bond market has already flinched, with borrowing costs touching 5 per cent.

For Nigeria the transmission is simple. Import bills, aviation fuel, diesel for generators, and the political temperature around PMS all move when Hormuz is a shooting gallery. Aso Rock can issue statements of non-alignment. It cannot print diesel.

Casualty claims remain contested. Iranian officials said a US strike on 1 September killed civilians at a wedding in Hormozgan; Washington denied targeting civilians. This desk reports both accounts. It does not pretend to have a reporter in Sirik county.

The Strait of Hormuz is no longer a shipping lane with a risk premium. It is the front.