Markets week: thin volumes, a watchful naira, a bond hangover

Lagos dealers go into the new week expecting thinner volumes after the government’s large power-sector bond sale, with the naira still trading inside a band the Central Bank has made a point of defending.

The bond sucked in duration that might otherwise have sat in bills or on the equity tape. Pension managers who filled their books last week can afford to wait. Banks, as usual, will make a market — at a price.

Equities remain a story of a few names. Banks, select industrials, and anything with a dollar-linked cashflow still attract bids. The rest of the board is a desert. Foreign portfolio money has not returned in size; it is waiting for a longer stretch of FX clarity than a single quiet month.

The risk to the week is not a speech. It is a sudden oil print, a pipeline incident, or a burst of import demand that tests the CBN’s nerve.